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More Bad News - Where Will It All End ?

last updated: 12 February 2008
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Martin Ward Anderson
Diverso Partners
American International Group (AIG) came out Monday and confirmed that its external auditors had discovered a 'material weakness' in how the firm values its credit-default swap portfolio. The upshot ? AIG will be taking a $4.88bn writedown. The firm's shares fell 11%, wiping $14bn off its market value.

Reuters reports that shares in ING were down as much as 6.5% Tuesday, as rumours spread that the group was likely to take write-downs of up to $11.5bn linked to its US real estate business.

The Times reports that a receiver will now been appointed for Standard Chartered's structured investment vehicle Whistlejacket, after a 'very recent' further fall in asset values. According to The Independent, core assets fell from $18.2bn at the end of August, to $7.15bn by the end of January.

And you know it must be really bad, when Credit Suisse takes a $1.88bn hit on the value of money market funds and write-downs on debt and leveraged loans in the fourth-quarter, and everyone is relieved. The company's fourth-quarter earnings came in down 72% at $1.21bn, but CEO Brady Dougan remains upbeat, saying 'we contained the impact of the credit-market dislocation in investment banking and increased revenues from the previous quarter. We are well-capitalized and conservatively funded'. 2007 full-year net profits were an impressive $7.76bn.

Bloomberg reports that Bank of America analysts have estimated that eight investment banks, including Citi, Goldman, JPMorgan, Merrill and Morgan Stanley, are likely to have to write-down at least $15.1bn on unsold loans and bonds for leveraged buyouts in the first-quarter.

The good news for SocGen is that they had insurance cover that will kick for their $7.1bn rogue trading mess. The bad news is that the payout is said to be 'marginal' compared to the loss.

Financial News reports that, according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, Goldman Sachs lost money trading on 52 days during its last fiscal year. Bear Stearns lost money on 62 days, whilst Morgan Stanley lost out on 34 days and Lehman Brothers posted losses on 33 trading days.

And finally, some more positive news. The Wall Street Journal reports that Citi analyst Prashant Bhatia thinks that the prospects for a return  to the good times over at Merrill Lynch are good. Bhatia says that the firm's shares, currently trading around $56, could go as high as $100 under the leadership of new CEO John Thain.

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