With many firms currently cutting investment banking heads, or likely to do so some time soon, we thought is would be interesting to try and work out the probability rate of you surviving job culls at your firm this year, and remaining in position at year-end.

We have taken the figures of investment banking job losses already announced by the top firms so far, worked out how many more jobs will need to go to hit these numbers, and then estimated how many additional staff are likely to be axed in each firm before the end of the year. We have then been able to calculate your chances of surviving this year, which will end up proving to be the most difficult for the investment banking industry in a generation.

The league table below is clearly not an exact science, as it deals in averages and does not take into account that staff working in some areas are more vulnerable than others (fixed income staff are more likely to be chopped that those working in commodities, for example. And staff in locations like London or New York are in greater danger of the job axe than those working in Asia-Pac). Nevertheless, the table is a good general guide and enables the reader to broadly see where employees appear to be have most job security during this period of market turmoil.

THE JOB CULL SURVIVAL PROBABILITY LEAGUE TABLE

(Note that the % quoted represents the chance an average staff member has of avoiding the job axe this year)

1. Societe Generale -  99.7% 

2. BNP Paribas - 99.2%

3. Barclays Capital - 98.3%

4. Deutsche Bank - 97.5%

5. Bank of America - 96.7%

6. Credit Suisse - 95.8%

7. Dresdner Kleinwort - 95.5%

8. Morgan Stanley - 95.1%

9. Goldman Sachs - 93.7%

10. Merrill Lynch - 93.4%

11. JPMorgan / Bear Stearns - 90%

12. Lehman Brothers - 88.6%

13. Citi - 88.1%

14. UBS Investment Bank - 86.9%

15. Royal Bank of Scotland / ABN AMRO - 79.3%

16. Wachovia Corp. - 77.8%

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Layoffs - The Definitive Job Loss League Table

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