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Pandit Or Thain - Who's Doing The Best Job ?

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MI6 - June 08
West Aussie Wine
Citi boss Vikram Pandit has been painted as a bit of a plodding clown, writing silly memos to staff whilst his firm implodes. Merrill Lynch CEO, John Thain, on the other hand, has been seen as a man-of-action, calming going about solving his firm's problems. Impressions of the pair changed, however, last week, when Merrill and Citi announced their second-quarter earnings.

Merrill Lynch posted a higher-than-expected second-quarter loss Thursday - some $4.65bn, after an additional $9.7bn in asset writedowns. Citi reported Friday, and pleasantly surprised the market with its earnings and writedowns - a $2.5bn loss after $12bn in asset writedowns and loan losses.

Pandit, it seems, is at least winning the PR war. Educating the market that there is more pain to come, even a $2.5bn loss looks good at Citi these days. Thain, however, gave the impression that Merrill was almost fixed, and the size of last week's loss was a shock. In hindsight, Thain should perhaps have prepared the markets for his firm's second-quarter figures, rather than simply stone-walling and pushing back the earnings announcement to after the markets closed Thursday.

Clearly, it's too early to judge either man yet (they will probably need a good 3 years at the helm for that), but here's what the smart money has been saying:

PANDIT

'I had mixed emotions when he became CEO. But it was a great decision. Citi is much further ahead of where I thought it would be at this point'.

Robert Olstein, CIO, Olstein Funds (Reuters)

'(Pandit has a tough job). Citi is exposed to every aspect of the economy. It's not like the movies, where all of a sudden you say: 'And they all lived happily after'.

Matt McCormick, analyst, Bahl & Gaynor Investment Counsel (Reuters).

THAIN

'I think he's doing as well as can be expected given the situation he was handed'.

Malcolm Polley, CIO, Stewat Capital Advisors (Reuters)

'Despite the horrific losses, Merrill's in better shape than Lehman, and Thain deserves more time'.

Henry Blodget (Clusterstock.com)

'John Thain has the most difficult job in the world. How to put lipstick on a female pig, and convince the world she deserves to be Ms America'.

Post on Wall Street Journal blog

'Thain has made a couple of missteps and therefore should accept some of the responsibility for Merrill's misfortunes. He's repeatedly misread the market. In January, he said his firm would not consider selling the Bloomberg stake....Thain's biggest mistake (however) may be the promise he made to foreign investors not to dilute their stakes when they pumped $15.5bn into the balance sheet. Merrill would have to pay them cash or stock, if Merrill sold (additional) stock. This has kept Merrill from issuing new stock and looking around the store for things to sell'.

David Weidner, MarketWatch

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