The Observer reports that staff at Goldman Sachs and a number of rival firms like Barclays Capital, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley (in other words, firms who have repaid state aid or survived without it), are likely to pay staff bumper bonuses this year-end. We at Here Is The City, however, are not so sure.

And our caution is not predicated on the fact that there will be howls of protest from lawmakers and taxpayers if big bonuses are awarded (these firms won't give a stuff about that now - and neither should they), but we wonder whether there will be the money there to justify big payouts.

True, first-quarter profits at these firms were generally impressive, and the second-quarter numbers look likely to be good too, but the jury remains out about the second-half of the year. Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein has already cautioned that the second-half of 2009 is likely to be tougher for the industry than the first, as we await a proper (and sustainable) economic recovery.

So, don't get too carried away in the euphoria over repayment of the TARP and a couple of decent quarters. Two quarters do not a big bonus year make.

Finally, The Independent on Sunday reports that the Equality and Human Rights Commission has been sniffing around City institutions looking into pay differentials between male and female employees. And, according to the newspaper, six firms have been asked to provide more details about their pay policies - Bank of America / Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Citi, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs and UBS.

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