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What Happens When Novices Trade Stocks

last updated: 18 September 2009
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It was almost a year ago, in October 2008, when the founders of Here Is The City both decided to try their luck in the US stock market.

So, during one of the most volatile periods in stock market history, how did these two novices fare ? Well, one is up 77% overall. And the other is 246% up since March alone.

During the course of the year, our would-be traders got into financial and shipping stocks too early, and ended up taking a bath. In fact, when the March lows were in, both guys were suicidal as they were sitting on huge losses. But they kept the faith, and, over the last few months, they successfully rode the rally and made the right calls in oil, biotech and swine-flu stocks.

So what are our intrepid duo investing in / looking at now ?

Here's a list of stocks, together with a note of why they may be of interest:

CMZ

An interesting short-term play this one. Last Friday the company announced the issuance of $150m of shares and warrants for $1.20, and the stock  promptly lost 20% of its value. The warrants allow the holder to buy additional shares for $1.55 over the next 24 months. Stock prices can often quickly recover following an offering of this kind, but this stock may also benefit as natural gas prices are at multi-year lows, and the US government is looking towards gas as a clean(er) alternative to oil.

CVM

CVM has proved to be a very successful bio play recently, and there's reason to believe there could be further upside. We spotted it back at the start of August and, with an upcoming FDA approval of a new facility in October, we wanted to be in for the run up to the decision date.

Within two days, following the release of details of potential earnings from the new facility, the stock rose 50%. The company's profile was now rising, and Biomedreports then released an article talking about alleged cloak and dagger meetings with US government officials concerning the H1N1 virus.

Last Tuesday afternoon, after confirmation of FDA meetings and human trials for a special H1N1 treatment, the stock rose to $1.81 - a 270% increase from our initial investment. We then took some off the table, selling 75% of our stake.

Wednesday, and the stock kissed the highs again, but the ceiling had been set, and more news would be needed to see it go higher. The catalyst was news of a stock offering. Bad news then ? We think not. The deal seems to be a good one for the company, with shares being sold at a very reasonable $1.40. The company also confirmed that the proceeds will pay for the Phase III trials of their potential cancer treatment, Multikine. The share price fell below the $1.40 offer price, so we bought back in.

With approval of a new facility, commencement of the phase III trials for Multikine, and results awaited from their fast tracked H1N1 human trials, we believe there's more life in this stock yet.

HURN

This stock fell almost 70% one day a couple of months back, after the company admitted overstating earnings by around $57m. As some of the founders were ex-Arthur Andersen partners, stockholders immediately thought 'Enron', and headed for the exits. The stock has roughly doubled in recent weeks, but remains significantly undervalued, especially since the company have confirmed earnings estimates.

A new (well regarded) leadership team is now in place, clients are said to have remained with the firm, and US market regulator The Securities and Exchange Commission is now believed to to have concluded its probe into the company's finances. A positive SEC report, or Q3 earnings (whichever comes first) should see this stock move substantially higher.

SPPI

This stock has been a little frustrating recently, with the share price falling almost 30% since recent highs, which were made immediately following an FDA approval.

With another FDA decision due in early October, a significant drug pipeline, revenues accruing from two already-approved drugs, and no debt, this cash-rich biotech company is well-placed for the future, and appears to be significantly undervalued - especially as it is viewed by many as a prime buyout candidate by a big pharma.

Disclosure - Here Is The City staff own stock in CVM, HURN, SPPI

Your Stocks To Watch

Tell us what's on your radar and what you are buying. Sending in your stocks to watch list, together with your reasons for buying in, to us at news@hereisthecity.com

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Here Is The City is not paid, compensated or in any way incentivised to report news and developments about publicly traded companies. Any articles relating to stocks and shares are the opinion of the poster, are no substitute for you own research, and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.

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